PATA Visitor Arrival Forecasts: Arrivals Well on Track with Forecasts

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BANGKOK, May 28, 2015 — International Visitor Arrivals to 25 Asia Pacific destinations that have released first quarter 2015 data show a combined inbound total of more than 101 million. This is just 1.9% off the forecast volume for that period as predicted in the ‘PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2015-2019 – Volume II’ released today.

“These numbers highlight the accuracy of these forecasts which reliably predict turning points in the visitor projections for 38 Asia Pacific destinations as they accelerate or, as in a few cases, contract their foreign inbound figures during 2015,” said PATA CEO Mario Hardy. “The availability of these forecasts on a quarterly basis provides destinations with a timely mechanism for adjusting their promotional strategies to take advantage of surges in outbound travel from particular origin markets and to re-deploy resources to their best advantage.”

Across the region, the Americas (2 destinations) is performing at 4.9% above the first quarter forecasts, while South Asia (2 destinations) is performing at 3.2% above them. Northeast Asia (6 destinations) is just 2.2% behind the first quarter forecast, while six destinations in Southeast Asia are collectively -4.2% behind the forecast volumes. The Pacific (9 destinations) is less than one percent (-0.7%) under forecast.

Year-on-year, the first quarter results for this cluster of 25 destinations is 5.1% better than the first quarter of 2014, with an additional 4.9 million arrivals added to the collective total for the period. The strongest performers in terms of period-to-period growth are Palau (+46.6%), Japan (+43.7%), Thailand (+23.5%), Sri Lanka (+13.6%) and Korea (ROK) (+13.4%).

China has reported a first quarter gain for the first time since 2012 and, with growth of four percent, has added 1.195 million additional arrivals to the count over that of the first quarter of 2014. While it is a significant increase, it ranks third behind Japan (+1.257 million) and Thailand (+1.501 million).

“With the speed of change today, it is increasingly important that we have reliable benchmarks against which to measure success and failure in specific markets,” continued Mr. Hardy. “This is why the PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts are such a vital tool for tourism marketers, planners and strategists, especially this second volume which provides details at quarterly and annual levels by origins/destinations for inbound arrivals as well as projections for outbound travel and receipts.”

The PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2015-2019 are a joint production of the Tourism Forecasting Unit within the School of Hotel and Tourism Management (SHTM) at The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU) and PATA, and provide detailed projections for individual source and generating markets at both quarterly and annual levels over the same period, along with a number of other metrics including tourism receipts and where data availability permits, departures predictions.

For more details about the availability of these forecasts, please contact the Strategic Intelligence Centre at [email protected].



About PATA
Founded in 1951, the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) is a not-for profit association that is internationally acclaimed for acting as a catalyst for the responsible development of travel and tourism to, from and within the Asia Pacific region. The Association provides aligned advocacy, insightful research and innovative events to its member organisations, comprising 87 government, state and city tourism bodies, 25 international airlines, airports and cruise lines, 61 educational institutions, and hundreds of travel industry companies in Asia Pacific and beyond. Thousands of travel professionals belong to the 43 local PATA chapters worldwide. The chapters organise travel industry training and business development events. Their grassroots activism underpins PATA’s membership of the Global Travel Association Coalition (GTAC), which includes ACI, CLIA, IATA, ICAO, WEF, UNWTO and the WTTC. The PATAmPOWER platform delivers unrivalled data, forecasts and insights from the PATA Strategic Intelligence Centre to members’ desktops and mobile devices anywhere in the world. PATA’s Head Office has been in Bangkok since 1998. The Association also has official offices or representation in Beijing, Sydney, Dubai, and London. Visit

About School of Hotel and Tourism Management, PolyU
PolyU’s School of Hotel and Tourism Management is a world-leading provider of hospitality and tourism education. It was ranked No. 2 internationally among hotel and tourism schools based on research and scholarship, according to a study published in the Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Research in November 2009.

With 65 academic staff drawing from 20 countries and regions, the School offers programme at levels ranging from Higher Diploma to Ph.D. Currently a member of the UNWTO Knowledge Network, the School was bestowed the McCool Breakthrough Award in 2012 by the International Council on Hotel, Restaurant, and Institutional Education (I-CHRIE) recognising its breakthrough in the form of its teaching and research hotel – Hotel ICON – the heart of the School’s innovative approach to hospitality and tourism education.


Media Contact:
Paul Pruangkarn
Manager – Communications
Bangkok, Thailand
Tel: +66 2 658 2000
E-mail: [email protected]g