What’s On the Horizon: Asia Pacific Travel Trends Forecasts 2025 - 2027
As destinations across the Asia Pacific rebuild momentum in the post-pandemic era, the next phase of tourism growth requires more than just rising arrival numbers. The focus now shifts to who can adapt—which destination has the vision, insight, and agility to respond to changing traveller behaviours and evolving market dynamics.
So how can destinations better understand today’s travellers, tailor strategies for specific source markets, and stay resilient in the face of uncertainty? One key way is by exploring data-driven insights and expert perspectives on the future of tourism in the region—like those shared in the PATA webinar, "Tourism Reimagined: Driving Sustainable Growth in Asia Pacific."
In this session, Dr. Anyu Liu, Assistant Professor at the School of Hotel and Tourism Management, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, unpacked the complex interplay of factors shaping tourism from 2025 to 2027. His presentation offered a sharp look at the key forces driving recovery and ongoing challenges, and how destinations can better position themselves for sustainable, long-term success.
This article will explore some of the key takeaways from the webinar, with sharp focus on the inbound forecast data of Asia Pacific’s sub-regions.
The Americas
Visitor arrivals to the Americas are projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2025 under both the mild (113.16%) and medium (100.11%) scenarios. Under the medium scenario, the market is expected to recover to 135 million arrivals in 2025 and grow to 167 million by 2027—equivalent to 110.69% of 2019 levels.
However, if the United States fails to resolve key challenges over the next three years, the severe scenario suggests that visitor arrivals will remain below its pre-COVID levels.
South Asia
South Asia is projected to fully recover by 2025, reaching 127.92% of 2019 levels under the mild scenario, and 108.11% under the medium scenario.
By 2027, arrivals are forecast to reach 22.7 million under the mild scenario (143.28% of 2019 levels), and 19.4 million under the medium scenario. This makes South Asia the second fastest-recovering Asia Pacific sub-region.
The recovery is driven by visa facilitations, expanded air connectivity, and stronger destination branding, with destinations like India and Sri Lanka highlighted as examples. Additionally, government-led promotion, improved travel infrastructure, and digital payment adoption have further supported the growth of intra-regional travel.
Northeast Asia (NEA)
NEA holds the largest market share among Asia Pacific sub-regions at 42%, and is projected to fully recover by 2026, reaching 105.26% of 2019 levels under the medium scenario.
In 2025, the forecast shows NEA reaching close to 300 million visitors, rising to 335 million by 2027. Even under the severe scenario, the region is expected to reach 295 million visitors by 2027, already near or above pre-COVID levels. The recovery is driven by strong intra-regional connectivity, relaxed travel policies—such as China’s visa policy for Korean tourists and the return of business and VFR travel.
However, visa facilitation delays, currency issues, and intensified competition from Southeast Asia, including low-cost carriers with visa-free combos, present ongoing challenges for the sub-region.
Southeast Asia
By 2025, visitor arrivals to Southeast Asia are projected to reach 117.63% (mild scenario) and 99.34% (medium scenario) of 2019 levels. Under the medium scenario, the region is expected to welcome 171 million visitors by 2027, equivalent to 121.74% of 2019 levels, surpassing the Americas.
This recovery is driven by improved intra- and inter-regional connectivity, along with strong demand for destinations such as Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Singapore.
The Pacific
The Pacific is the slowest recovering region, with visitor arrivals in 2025 under the medium scenario expected to remain below 100% of pre-COVID levels. However, under the medium scenario, 30.1 million visitors are forecast to arrive by 2027, reaching 108.48% of 2019 levels.
The premium tourism market is a key driver of recovery, particularly in Australia and New Zealand, which together are projected to account for 50% of total arrivals by 2027. Recovery in the region is constrained by the slow resumption of international flights, limited market size, and high operating costs, including fuel, accommodation, and F&B, to name a few.
Hear more about each sub-region and its IVAs based on three different scenarios on our complimentary webinar, starting at timestamp 25:35.
Sneak a peek at insights on the destination Level
The U.S. 🗽
Visitor arrivals to the U.S. are projected to reach 95.02% of 2019 levels by 2025 and 104.42% by 2027.
Key challenges include shifting travel policies, high flight costs, and budget cuts impacting infrastructure.
China 🐲
China’s inbound tourism is expected to recover to 90.72% of 2019 levels by 2025 and fully rebound to 102% by 2027.
Hong Kong and Macao remain the top source markets, though most travellers are same-day visitors.
India 🪷
India’s inbound tourism is forecast to reach 96.8% of 2019 levels by 2025 and 102.9% by 2026.
Bangladesh and the U.S. remain the top source markets.
The focus now is on improving safety, infrastructure, and expanding e-Visa access to support long-term growth.
Hawaii🌺
Hawaii is expected to recover to 98.78% of 2019 visitor levels by 2025 and surpass them by 2026.
The majority of arrivals are from the U.S., followed by Japan. However, demand from Japan remains weak due to currency fluctuations.
Get more insights on these destinations and more from the webinar at timestamp 32:52
All of this is a reflection of the broader Asia Pacific tourism recovery, which presents a dynamic mix of rapid rebounds and lingering constraints. As traveller behaviours evolve and external pressures persist, the path forward will require destinations to stay agile, data-informed, and market-aware.
While recovery won’t look the same everywhere, those that adapt quickly and plan strategically will be best placed to capture future demand and drive long-term, sustainable growth across the region.
Check out more data-driven insights by downloading the Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2025-2027: Mid-year Update and dive deep into destination-specific insights through the additional 39 Destinations Reports, which include destinations like China, Thailand, Türkiye, and many more, produced with the support of Visa, PATA Premier Partner!
This blog draws on insights shared during the webinar “Tourism Reimagined: Driving Sustainable Growth in Asia Pacific.” We extend our sincere thanks to Dr. Anyu Liu, Assistant Professor at the School of Hotel and Tourism Management, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, for generously sharing his expertise and perspectives on the evolving tourism landscape.
This article is guest-authored by Hsu Myat Phyo Zin (Joyce), PATA Marketing Intern for Q2 2025.
