Destination Forecasts 2021-2023

Exclusive Sponsor:

Pricing 1 Members include: Government Level I, Aviation Level I, Partners (except Alliance Partners)

Pricing 2 Members include: Government Level II (NTO & National Allied Partner), Aviation, Hospitality - Corporate, Hospitality - Corporate Affiliate, Industry - Corporate

Pricing 3 Members include: Government Level II (Province/State, Municipal/CVBs & Provincial/State/Municipal Allied Partner), Alliance Partner, Hospitality - Property, Hospitality - General, Industry - General, Industry - Travel Agency, Industry - Tour Operator, Industry - Association, Industry - Media, Education - Premium, Education - Basic

Following the successful release of the “Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2021-2023 early this month and in response to the continuing COVID-19 pandemic, the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) is pleased to announce the third issue of a suite of 39 destination-specific reports for the period 2021-2023, sponsored by Visa. Each report builds on the regional forecast by delving deeper into the changing dynamics of travel and tourism, into and across the Asia Pacific region at the single destination level. The reports also include additional data and insights from Euromonitor International.

A number of essential changes to these reports have been made in response to the extremely volatile global conditions. The first most notable change has been a reduction in the coverage period to three years, given the highly erratic situation. The second has been the development of three scenarios for each destination, ranging from mild, to medium and severe. The third change is the review of each scenario to include updated data on visitor arrivals and global conditions as they appear throughout the year.

The first update will be released at the end of the second quarter of 2021, with another scheduled for early in the final quarter of the same year. This agility is considered essential to better understand the changing possibilities for the destinations under each scenario and in allowing for a more rapid leverage of potential opportunities as they present themselves. In addition, each update will be highlighted with a webinar specifically designed to provide a more detailed interpretation of what these changes may mean for the destinations and for the Asia Pacific region.

Each of the 39 reports covers a specific destination in the Asia Pacific and individually provides:

• Annual forecasts of visitor arrival numbers into each destination, by scenario and source region;

• Quarterly forecasts of visitor arrival numbers into each destination, by scenario and source region 1 ;

• Recovery rates for international visitor arrival (IVA) growth back to the 2019 benchmark;

• Annual changes in relative visitor share by source region, year and scenario; and

• Quarterly changes in forward scheduled international inbound air seat capacity.

These scenarios, when combined with other relevant metrics, provide hard data on how travel demand preferences could play out in these destinations and how they might recover under various conditions. Scheduled international inbound air seat capacity, for example, shifts relatively quickly according to demand. In other words, understanding the likelihood of when and where capacity increases become a useful barometer of potential demand that can translate into increased arrivals.