The Next Wave of Asia Pacific Travel: Source Markets and Destinations to Watch
By 2026, 20 out of 39 destinations are expected to surpass pre-pandemic visitor arrival levels, including major destinations such as Canada, India, and Hawaii. By 2028, the Asia Pacific region is projected to welcome 789.2 million international visitor arrivals under the baseline forecast scenario.
This would bring international visitor arrivals to 115.6% of 2019 levels, reflecting the region's continued recovery and growth. Rising income levels, strong demand from key source markets, the use of artificial intelligence to enhance travel experiences, and growing interest in health and wellness travel are expected to support this growth. However, challenges remain, including rising travel costs driven by geopolitical tensions and ongoing concerns around destination safety and security.
Get the full picture in the mid-year update of the Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2026–2028, [LINK].
As destinations continue to recover and compete for visitors, understanding the evolving behaviour of key source markets will be critical for tourism organisations and businesses across the region.
Source Markets to Keep an Eye On
Chinese Travellers
The continued growth of China's middle class is expected to support outbound tourism demand. However, more cautious consumer spending and a growing preference for domestic travel may temper the pace of recovery in the outbound market.
Hong Kong SAR and Macao, China, are expected to remain the top two destinations for Chinese travellers through 2028, with both destinations forecast to exceed their pre-pandemic visitor arrival levels.
Japanese Travellers
The USA, Korea (ROK), and China are expected to remain the top three destinations for Japanese travellers. By 2028, these destinations are forecast to welcome approximately 2.2 million, 4.6 million, and 4.2 million visitors from Japan, respectively.
While Vietnam is projected to improve its popularity amongst Japanese visitors, that of the USA, Hong Kong SAR, and Guam is expected to gradually decline.
US Travellers
By 2028, 66 million visitors are forecast to depart from the USA to destinations across the Asia Pacific. Canada and Mexico are expected to maintain their positions as the most popular destinations over the forecast period.
Within the region, Korea (ROK) is projected to gain significant momentum, rising to become the seventh most popular destination for US travellers by 2028.
Korean Travellers
Korea (ROK) is forecast to generate 44 million outbound visitors to destinations across Asia Pacific by 2028.
Japan, China, and Vietnam are expected to retain their positions as the leading destinations for Korean travellers, while Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore are projected to improve their rankings over time.
Destination Highlights
Thailand
Thailand is projected to welcome 42 million international visitors by 2028, slightly surpassing its pre-pandemic performance. China is expected to remain the destination’s largest source market throughout the forecast period.
India
India is forecast to welcome 13 million international visitors by 2028. Its inbound market structure is expected to remain relatively stable, with the USA and Bangladesh accounting for approximately 17.1% and 15.3% of total inbound arrivals, respectively, in 2026.
For deeper insights on Thailand, India, and other destinations discussed during the webinar, hear more>
Looking Ahead
While the overall outlook for Asia Pacific tourism remains positive, growth will vary across destinations and source markets. Understanding these shifts will be crucial for destinations and tourism businesses seeking to remain competitive and capture future demand.
For further insights into the outlook for the US and Chinese outbound markets, watch the presentation here>
To explore the complete findings and forecasts, download the full Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2026–2028 mid-year update report. PATA Members can access the report on the PATA Info Hub platform.
This article was inspired by the webinar titled Asia Pacific Travel in Transition: Growth, Volatility, and Strategic Realignment, featuring Professor Haiyan Song, Mr and Mrs Chan Chak Fu Professor in International Tourism School of Hotel and Tourism Management The Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
